Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?

Using PESSOA, a DSGE model for a small euro area economy, we analyze the size of fiscal multipliers associated with a large fiscal consolidation in "normal times" and in "crisis times." The crisis times scenario embodies a temporary increase in nominal rigidities and in financial frictions, purportedly better reflecting the underlying economic environment during the "Great Recession." Results show that impact multipliers are around 50-70 percent larger in crisis times for expenditure-based fiscal consolidations. A government consumption-based adjustment yields the highest impact multiplier (1.8 in crisis times vis-à-vis 1.2 in normal times). Revenue-based fiscal consolidations are also more recessive in crisis times, though the differences against normal times are less pronounced.

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