A spatial viewpoint on fertility by regions in Portugal

Portugal is characterised by a strong decline in fertility. The significant costs associated with this require an intervention by the public authorities. However, effective pubic policy requires recognition of the fact that fertility differs across regions. Sufficiently disaggregated data reveals that in some regions the decline in fertility is less problematic than in others, where extinction of human beings seems eminent. The objective of the paper is to shed light on the Portuguese fertility problem from a regional viewpoint. I employ a spatial econometrics model to analyse the determinants of the fertility rates of the municipalities of the Portugal mainland. I find that differences in demographic structure, health care factors (outcomes), as well as economic factors are important in explaining fertility.